Luckily for Brewers fans the team became good (and fun!) by the late 2000s. There was 2008 when trade deadline acquisition Carsten Charles Sabathia single handedly pitched the club to a playoff appearance. Then there was 2011 when Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder helped power the franchise all the way to the NLCS.
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This is the first time the Brew Crew has been back to semi finals since. And what’s funny is that entering this season the Brewers weren’t supposed to be THIS good or even THIS fun.
2018 was the year of Super Teams after all. Of the six division winners this year only the Braves were a (complete) surprise. The Red Sox, Indians, Astros, and Dodgers were all popular preseason picks. Then there were the Brewers, who needed a Game 163 to win the division over the rival Chicago Cubs. So it was somewhat of a nice surprise to see the Brewers win the division over the preseason favorite.
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It wasn’t as big of a shock as Atlanta overtaking Washington in the East, but it still isn’t what we expected back in March. The Brew Crew are good, which usually means they’re a fun team for casual fans to root for. The biggest story lately has been how underrated-manager Craig Counsell has been using his pitchers.
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Counsell has basically thrown conventional wisdom out the window. He hasn’t had a starter pitch into the 7th inning since August 31st. In a late September game versus the Cardinals he used lefty reliever Dan Jennings to start the game and face just one batter, lefty swinging Matt Carpenter.
In Game 1 of the NLDS he used a bullpen game. It all might sound crazy, but it’s working. In their NLDS against the Rockies, Colorado scored just two runs in three games, both of which came in the same inning.
That means they were held scoreless for the other 26 innings of the series. The American League Wild Card game is tonight and in case you haven’t heard the Oakland Athletics are going with “The Opener” strategy. It’s a perfect storm of events for the A’s to try this out.
It’s a win or go home game, Oakland has an underwhelming cast of starting pitchers, and they have a historically great bullpen. The Opener is deserving of its own blog soon, but today we should quickly touch on A’s closer Blake Treinen. The right-hander had an all time relief pitcher season in 2018. Of course, because he plays for the A’s this means it was mostly under appreciated. Treinen will likely get a lot of buzz in tonight’s one game playoff, however, and deservedly so. After all he was Oakland’s most important player this year. You could argue that Matt Chapman (the best defender in baseball) was more important to the Athletics’ success, but it was Treinen who dominated a stat called win probability added.
The idea of WPA is that certain situations in a game are more important/more high leverage than others. For example, pitching well in a one-run game in the ninth inning should matter more than pitching well in a six-run game in the seventh inning. Oakland’s closer led baseball this year with a 6.47 WPA. The next closest finisher came in at 5.30.
Fourth place was at 3.83. In summary Treinen was more important to his team’s wins than any other reliever this year and it wasn’t even close. If an advanced stat like WPA is too much for you then Treinen’s traditional stats should be enough to warrant your attention.
In 80 1/3 innings he posted an elite 0.78 ERA, which happens to be the lowest of all time with a minimum of 80 IP. The 29-year-old also struck out 100, walked 21, and allowed just two homers. His 1.82 FIP backs up his elite ERA as well. The bullpen was the story of the 2018 Oakland A’s. It’s fitting that they’re using a bullpen game in the biggest game of the year, and if the A’s are going to win tonight it only makes sense that Treinen enters a close game to finish off the victory. Let’s start this blog post by taking a shot at a familiar punching bag, the Florida Marlins (no, we will not call them by their proper name until that joke of a franchise proves they deserve it).
Last winter, during an epic fire sale, the Marlins traded Christian Yelich to the Brewers in a trade so lopsided it would get vetoed in your local fantasy league. In return for a near Triple Crown winner, Milwaukee sent Florida four prospects you probably haven’t heard of. The headliner, Lewis Brinson, hit.199 with a 62 OPS+ in 109 games this year. But maybe we shouldn’t be so hard on the Marlins. After all, entering 2018 Yelich had been a good-not-great major league player.
Between 2016 and 2017 the young outfielder hit a respectable.290/.373/.460 while averaging 19 homers and 89 RBI. That’s solid production, but Yelich was by no means a star. That explains the shift in approach Yelich made as a hitter in 2018.
To simplify, Yelich has been far more aggressive on first pitch strikes this year. It makes sense why he would want to do this. In this age of 100mph fastballs and wipeout sliders, hitters don’t want to be down in the count.
If a pitcher is giving you a first pitch strike, might as well swing right? The results speak for themselves.
Including Game 163 Yelich hit.326 with a 1.000 OPS, 36 homers, and 110 RBI. It gets crazier.The 26-year-old has particularly turned it on in the season’s second half. Over his final 74 games this year he hit.367 with 75 RBI. Oh, and over his final 35 games he put up a.500 OBP. This is why we’re talking about him as an MVP candidate. So let’s get to that. Is Christian Yelich deserving of National League MVP honors?
It feels like that’s where everyone is at, and it helps that Yelich leads all NL position players in WAR. Now the MVP isn’t the WAR award, but it’s a nice place to start when thinking about potential candidates. What’s crazy about the MVP discussion this year is that the top four NL WAR leaders are all pitchers. For me, a pitcher needs to be having a truly DOMINANT/historic campaign to win the MVP award, which is what Jacob deGrom has done.
The probable Cy Young winner put up a 1.70 ERA in 2018, good for the fifth lowest mark since the mound was lowered in 1969. But the MVP conversation is for another day. If deGrom doesn’t win it, then Yelich will. He was the best player on the best team in the National League.
He hit for two cycles. He came up big when it mattered most in September. He fell two homers and one RBI short of the first NL triple crown since 1937. He won the batting title. He ranked second in runs and first in total bases. He’s THE story in baseball entering October. There was a great post on Reddit this weekend.
It linked to highlighting the WAR leaders among active players. Even though Ichiro retired this year, he’s still listed there, and he has been passed by Mike Trout in career WAR. If you’ve been following Trout during his brief yet already HOF worthy career, then you know how well he rates in WAR. The worst thing about Trout is that he’s not flashy enough to garner outrageous attention from mainstream media. Instead, he just does everything - hitting, defense, base running - really, really, really well. That gets captured in a stat like WAR.
Entering 2018 Trout already had more career WAR than 77 (!!!!) hall of famers. It’s so outrageous and we hear Trout facts like this all the time now that we’ve become numb to them, but they remain ridiculous. Hearing that Trout had passed Ichiro, however, really caught my eye. Sure, Ichiro was already 27 when he came over MLB, but he also had 10 straight seasons of 200 hits with a.300 batting average.
Trout is only 26 and he’s already more accomplished. If all this wasn’t enough, Trout is having the best year of his career thus far. And according to, he’s on track to have the best year ever for a position player. While Trout’s offensive numbers (.303 BA, 1.121 OPS, 19 HR, 13 SB) are tremendous, it’s his defense that’s helping him chase Babe Ruth. Right now Trout is on pace for 14.6 bWAR, which would best Ruth’s 14.1 mark set in 1923. It was cute when Mookie Betts was getting hyped as the best player in baseball last month, but let this serve as a reminder that this is still Trout’s world.
The rest of us are just living in it. Let’s pretend for a minute that Max Scherzer doesn’t exist.
It’s tough to do. Scherzer has been awesome this year. If he keeps up the pace he’s on, which will be tough, he could win the FOURTH Cy Young of his career. It would be also be his third straight. For comparison, Clayton Kershaw has three Cy Young awards. Pedro Martinez won three. Randy Johnson won four.
That’s the kind of company we’re talking about here. The 33-year-old Scherzer is and we should be talking more about it. But that’s a blog post for another day. Today, we are talking about Josh Hader. If it wasn’t for Scherzer’s continued brilliance we would be talking about Hader as a legitimate, early season Cy Young candidate. I know what you’re thinking. Yes, Hader is a relief pitcher, and relief pitchers don’t usually win Cy Young awards.
In fact, it has only ever happened nine times. The only one to do in the past 25 years was Eric Gagne in 2003, meaning it takes a truly dominant season out of the pen to pull it off. And that’s what we have with Hader in 2018. Through 34 1/3 innings this year the 24-year-old southpaw has a 1.05 ERA, a 0.67 WHIP, and a very nice 69 strikeouts. According to from this past week Hader had a 57 K% at the time it was written, which would easily be the highest of all time.
For context, only Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel have ever topped 50%, and they barely did it. Also in that blog is an insane stat that says batters are just 1-for-78 against Hader once they get two strikes on them. But it’s not just the raw numbers that make Hader so valuable. It’s how he’s being used. Brewers manager Craig Counsell is employing him in the same fashion that Terry Francona employs Andrew Miller, as a multi-inning weapon that enters the game during the most high leverage game situations regardless of the inning. To me, this is a more valuable role than the one Gagne had when he won the award in ‘03, which was your typical ninth-inning closer. Hader can do that.
He has six saves already. He can also pitch as a set up man. He has 10 holds.
He can go multiple innings. In fact, in 12 of his 20 appearances this year he has thrown at least two innings. The different ways in which you can employ him make him far more valuable than your traditional one inning closer. Sometimes the most high leverage situation comes in the sixth, seventh, or eighth. It's not always the ninth. Hader's success is a major reason why the Brewers have the despite losing closer Corey Knebel for a month.
The last time I can remember a reliever having a shot at the Cy was. He had a great case to be made around this point in the season that year, but ultimately lost out to several starters who had strong seasons. In that post I wrote that it takes two things for a reliever to win the Cy. They have to be having a historic season and there must be no dominant starters to choose from. Hader's year has been historic, but with the way Scherzer and Jacob deGrom have been throwing lately it doesn't seem like both of my criteria will be met. Maybe those guys will fall off a bit and Hader won't.
But if there's a starting pitcher having a great year then their 180-200+ innings will always be more valuable than a reliever. Then agin Hader might pitch 100 innings. And he might strike out 200! It'll be tough as hell to pull off, but let's see what happens. Whenever I hear about Gleyber Torres all I can think about is that the Yankees gave up nothing to acquire him. It happened back in July 2016, when Yankees GM Brian Cashman did something he never does - he became a seller at the trade deadline.
Cashman had some great trade pieces. One was Andrew Miller, who was sent to the Indians for Clint Frazier. The other was impending free agent Aroldis Chapman, who was sent to the Cubs for Torres. Chapman helped Chicago win their first World Series in 108 years, so they would do the trade again today. But man, it probably has to sting a little. That’s because after two months with the Cubs, Chapman re-signed with the Yankees as a free agent.
New York didn’t need him in 2016, so they got Gleyber. Now they have both.
And while Torres was climbing the ranks in the minors (he also underwent Tommy John surgery last year) the Baby Bombers were developing Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino, and Didi Gregorius. Then they traded for Giancarlo Stanton. Finally, Torres came up in April of this year, and he might be the best Baby Bomber of them all. The 21-year-old could be playing shortstop for the most famous baseball team in the world.
Instead, because the Yankees are so loaded, he’s becoming an All-Star second baseman before our very eyes. Through 33 big leagues games this season Torres is batting.319 with a.376 OBP, a 969 OPS, 9 HR, and 26 RBI.
His offense alone makes him a stud. Then you factor in that he’s playing a premium position on defense, and playing it well. He’s been worth 1.7 WAR this year according to Baseball-Reference. That’s more than every Yankee position player except Judge and Brett Gardner. Torres is also getting praised for his cool, calm, and collected demeanor on the field.
He hit a walk-off homer on May 6th versus Cleveland, and then delivered a walk-off single this past Tuesday versus the defending champion Astros. Tuesday’s walk-off sticks out as particularly clutch because Torres was able to shake off an iffy day in the field with two errors. It’s just one at bat of course, but it’s the type of moment you want to see young players come through in. Torres is starting to have several of those just a month into his big league career. Gleyber has been soooo good this year in such a short time that I find myself wondering if he’s going to be the most valuable Yankee of this inevitable dynasty. It’s a bit of a hot take to even suggest that when Judge, Sanchez, Stanton, and Severino all share the same uniform, but this is more of an acknowledgement of how good this kid can become. He’s only 21.
He’s five years younger than Judge. Despite Tuesday’s errors he’s playing well defensively at an up the middle position. He’s already a complete player. If I had to choose today between a 21-year-old Torres and a 26-year-old Judge to build my team around.I might take Torres. That’s crazy. It’s only been a month.
It's just been such an impressive month. Of course, Yankee fans don’t have to worry about that. These guys aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.Sigh. Instead, they can focus on what looks like a great AL Rookie of the Year race between Torres and Angels two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani.
New York entered the season with a stacked team. Now they have another incredibly talented young player. It’s a great time to be a Yankee fan. How incredible is it that one of the biggest stories in baseball right now is about a 19-year-old kid in the minors?
Vladdy Jr started the year hot, people took notice, and we all kind of expected him to come somewhat back down to earth. The opposite has happened. Miraculously, Vlad keeps getting better. The stats are becoming more and more outrageous, and it's to the point where the Blue Jays need to seriously consider calling him up ASAP. Through Memorial Day he has played 46 games in Double-A.
VJ is hitting an obscene.433/.481/.713 with 10 homers and 50 RBI. He has a 1.194 OPS and far more extra base hits (29) than strikeouts (20). At this point it should be considered a major upset if we don't see him in Toronto - and soon. The Jays will at least wait a few more days for the Super 2 deadline to pass, but come mid-June there's no reason we shouldn't be watching him punish baseballs in the show. I have no idea if something is going on with the Astros and their pitching staff. We know, but it’s tough for me to wrap my head around how exactly a MLB team could so effectively “cheat” and get away with it.
If they're using pine tar why doesn't every other team just do the same? And the only reason it's conceivable to even think something fishy is going on is because the Houston rotation has been downright otherworldly through two months.
35-year-old Justin Verlander has been reborn since doing the 'Stros. Through 11 starts this year he's 7-2 with a 1.11 ERA.
Gerrit Cole had a 4.26 ERA last season while averaging under a strikeout per inning. In 2018 he has a 2.05 ERA with a league leading 13.1 K/9. That’s incredible. And am I just supposed to believe that 34-year-old Charlie Morton suddenly learned how to throw 99mph while averaging 10.9 K/9 to go along with his 2.04 ERA? Or maybe Bauer is right. Either way the Astros’ lineup isn’t historic like it was last year, but now their rotation is. For my money they’re still the favorite to win the title come October.Who would be the American League MVP if the season ended today? There’s no question that Mike Trout and Mookie Betts have been the two best players in baseball this year, but there is a question of which has been “more valuable”.
Mookie has more runs scored, total bases, and RBI to go along with a higher batting average and OPS. Trout has 1 more homer with a better OBP.
Trout has a slight edge in WAR according to both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs. The Red Sox have the best record in baseball at 37-17. The Angels are 29-25 (though Betts also has a better supporting cast).
It’s nearly impossible to definitively determine who should win, but it’s worth noting that Mookie gets hurt in the WAR calculation by playing a 'less premium position' (RF as opposed to CF). What the WAR formulas don't account for, however, is that Mookie is really a center fielder who happens to play on the same team as Jackie Bradley Jr. Because of that I'd give him the award if the season ended today, and that's coming from someone who think Trout should have 2-3 more MVPs than he already does.Entering spring training last year Cardinals pitcher Alex Reyes was a consensus top-5 prospect in baseball. Some Baseball America writers even had him at number one overall, ahead of names like Andrew Benintendi and Yoan Moncada. He unfortunately needed Tommy John surgery, but the good news is he’s set to make his 2018 debut this Wednesday versus the Brewers. It’s a tough matchup, but the 23-year-old has looked like Bob Gibson reincarnated during his rehab assignment.
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Through four starts spanning 23 innings Reyes has a 0.00 ERA with 44 - I repeat, 44 - strikeouts. He has walked seven while also allowing just seven hits.
Louis has dealt with as many injuries to their big league team as anyone else in baseball this season, yet they’re hanging around in the NL Central. As of Monday night they’re at 28-23 and just five games behind the Brewers. They’re going to need Reyes to be awesome to make the playoffs. He’s a name baseball fans should begin familiarizing themselves with, and remember to keep an eye on his showdown Wednesday vs Milwaukee.
In case you missed it the Tampa Bay Rays, an actual MLB organization, started a relief pitcher over the weekend.twice. They did it on purpose, in order to gain a competitive advantage over their opponent. It's been termed 'the opener' (get it? Not a closer). Now the Rays have been experimenting with 'bullpen games' this year, but 'the opener' is something different entirely.
The strategy is to use a good reliever to start the game. It could be your set up man, your closer, your Andrew Miller-esque fireman. Doesn't matter. This way you are ensuring a quality pitcher faces the other team's best hitters at the top of their order. 'The opener' might only get three outs or he could go longer. Again, doesn't matter. More runs are scored in the first than in any other inning, so by using one of your best arms early on you are getting an edge.
So after 588 straight relief appearances Rays reliever Sergio Romo made his first career start on Saturday as Tampa's opener. Romo did well, striking out the side in a scoreless first inning. He did so well in fact that Rays manager Kevin Cash started him again on Sunday.
This time he went 1 1/3 innings while striking out three and walking two. We've seen relievers be used on back-to-back days before. That's nothing new. The only difference is Romo was used in the first as opposed to the seventh or eighth. Once 'the opener' finishes his appearance a manager has two options.
One, they could either go full blown bullpen game (could work here and there, definitely in the playoffs, but probably not over a full 162). The other option is to then put in a 'starting pitcher'. Instead of throwing innings 1-6 or 1-7 this pitcher throws innings 2-6 or 2-7 or 2-8. Here's what Saturday's box score looked like. Now, this whole idea of an opener will always be easier said than done.
Baseball players are creatures of habit. It could be difficult for some starting pitchers to adjust to coming into the game in the second inning. There's already been some backlash. Angels third baseman Zack Cozart said what the Rays did with Romo is 'bad for baseball'. It won't be accepted by everyone right away, and maybe long term this can't work.
People should be open to the idea though, the same way we had to get used to the idea of shifting. Lastly I want to note that this strategy doesn't have to be used. Eventually, maybe. But right now there are still tons of good starting pitchers in baseball. If you have a great rotation like the Astros there's no need for a 'gimmick' like this. I hope we see 'the opener' used by more teams other than the Rays. In the right situation, with the right players, it could make you look really smart.
When the Devil Rays and Diamondbacks became actual MLB teams in the summer of 1998, Nationals rookie outfielder Juan Soto wasn't yet alive. If you want to feel even older, Soto was born the same year Google was started. He's young, and after tearing up minor league pitching this season he became the youngest player in Major League Baseball today. It's the continuation of a ridiculous six week stretch for Soto, who began the 2018 season as MLB Pipeline's 15th best prospect. He started the year in Single-A and has already been promoted three times now.
His minor league numbers this season (.362 average with 14 HR and 52 RBI in 39 games) are outstanding, and the scouting report on him is promising. The lefty hitting Soto stays back in his stance and hits line drives/fly balls to the gaps. He figures to begin his big league career as a doubles hitter with the potential to become a power bat who also hits for average and gets on base. A.300/.400/.500 slash line with 30 homers type hitter.
The only reason most people may not have heard about Soto was that at 19 years old he wasn't expected to debut this soon (plus he's been overshadowed a bit by Vladdy Jr.) The last Nationals outfielder who made it to the majors as a teenager was Bryce Harper, who had 536 plate appearances in the minors before debuting. Soto only had 512 before today. So why are the Nats calling him up? Well the team just got swept by the Dodgers this weekend, and at 24-21 they're in fourth place in the surprisingly competitive NL East. It's no secret Harper could leave after this year. He's never won a playoff series in Washington and there are surely going to be some big time offers waiting for him in free agency.
There's pressure for the Nationals to win now. Soto hasn't had a lot of experience as a professional, but he's one of their best hitters. That's enough to get him to the bigs in this pivotal year for the franchise. Between the years of 2004 and 2013 the St.
Louis Cardinals had a modern day dynasty, making the playoffs seven times during the 10-year stretch. During this time the franchise won four pennants and two World Series titles, an incredible feat to pull off in an era defined by parity.
Just two other organizations have won multiple championships since 2000. The most notable name on most of these Cardinal teams was Albert Pujols, one of the best right handed hitters of all time. Any conversation about the mid 2000s Cardinals has to start with “The Machine”.
There were other greats players too. Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday, and Chris Carpenter were all big contributors during those years. But only one player was there for ALL those years, their catcher, Yadier Molina. I can’t imagine there’s a baseball fan alive who wouldn’t have wanted Yadier as his or her team’s catcher over the past decade. We’re talking about an 8x Gold Glove winner who also made eight all-star teams.
He's widely considered the best defensive catcher of his generation. The more I think about it the more incredible it is we’re even having this HOF conversation at all, particularly when you consider where Molina was offensively back when St. Louis began this run of dominance. In 2006 when the Cardinals won it all a 23-year-old Molina hit just.216 with a 53 OPS+, which means he was 47% worse than a league average as a hitter.
Something clicked that next season, however, because Molina improved his average to.275 in '07 and then.304 in '08. Batting average is obviously a flawed stat but huge increases like that can show that a hitter is developing. Between 2007 and 2010 Molina posted OPS+ numbers of 85, 96, 100, and 84. He was a replacement level hitter that became a great baseball player due to his elite defense. Molina's offensive apex came between 2011 and 2013. During these this year stretch Yadi hit.313/.361/.481 while averaging 16 homers and 74 RBI. I ordinarily wouldn't get too worked up about numbers like that, but when you compare those plus offensive stats with the glove, you get an elite player.
Molina deservedly finished fourth in the 2012 NL MVP voting and then third in 2013. Since then he's been similar to the '07-'10 version of himself with the bat. So how does Yadi stack up with the other great catchers in baseball history? I’m no slave to WAR, but I think it’s a great starting point for any HOF discussion. Just to get a picture of what we’re dealing with, and sometimes the number surprises you.
For example I didn’t really think of until realizing he had already surpassed third-ballot inductee Craig Biggio in career WAR. This is where Molina's HOF case takes a hit. According to Baseball-Reference the average HOF catcher accumulates 53.5 career WAR. Molina currently ranks 27th all time at 37.4, below names such as Jorge Posada and Jason Kendall (wtf?). If you go by 'peak WAR' AKA WAR7 AKA the sum of the seven best WAR season for a player, Molina ranks 26th, so it's not too different. I think a lot of people want Yadi to be a HOFer in part because everyone likes him, but also in part because he was so good at one thing: defense.
There's a bias in HOF voting where voters push for someone who was really god at a specific skill, whether it be defense or striking batters out or compiling saves. It means the great all around players (think Larry Walker) get overlooked.
For years Molina has been a good to really good two-way catcher. And while he had a nice three year peak as an above average hitter, it just didn't last long enough and wasn't good enough to make him an all time great. Verdict: Hall of Very Good.
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